He can actually win!


Today’s Rasmussen Poll Rocks the Washington Establishment.  Ron Paul can actually win!

According to a Rasmussen Poll released today, if the 2012 presidential election were held now Barack Obama would defeat Ron Paul by a narrow margin of 1% of the national vote.  It would be 42%-41%.  Only a sliver separates the popular president, beloved by the media and the national establishment, from an insurgent candidacy that calls for an end to foreign interventionism, government intrusion into our private lives and bailouts of big banks and private businesses.

Even more stunning, according to the poll only 11% prefer some other candidate and 6% are undecided.

This is earth shattering news in the corridors of power of New York and Washington, D.C.  Hey, it is stunning news in Peoria, Illinois.

Two years ago I wrote a blog entitled The Mouse that Roared.  It told the surprising story of how a little known congressman from Texas, Ron Paul, had surged too late to win the Republican nomination but not too late to awaken the nation to his remarkable political platform.  Just as the John McCain clinched the nomination Paulistas appeared everywhere, like mushrooms after the rain.  The GOP went into emergency mode to change state party rules and sometimes shut down their own conventions to kill the embarrassing phenomenon of Ron Paul supporters winning delegates after the mathematical certainty of the McCain win was in the bag.  (See How a GOP conspiracy continues to hurt Ron Paul.)

Even as the Republican Party experienced the Sarah Palin boomlet and then tanked in the general election the Paulistas were growing and spreading across party lines.  Republican and Democrat, conservative and liberal, Evangelical and Gay, Black and White, old and young, Ron Paul’s message of limited government had wide appeal.

When the Obama Stimulus plan appeared to be nothing more than a looting of the US Treasury for unions and narrow Democrat activist groups, and none of the most basic tweaks of the mortgage crisis were addressed, the Paulistas began to pick up steam.  How could the public turn to establishment Republicans when the Bush administration had started the most recent mess?   And yet, what was Barack Obama doing?  Looting the treasury for his party at a time when unemployment was still soaring?

Ron Paul offered something different.  It appeared to most to be a libertarian message, although Paul himself pointed out that it was pure Republicanism, a message that has been missing from the public debate since the days of Robert Taft.  Ronald Reagan had espoused much of the same thing but the pragmatic realities of the Cold War had put his plans on the back burner.  Ron Paul was saying that in the name of one emergency or another America was playing loose with the constitution, that our foreign policy was out of control.   It was time for America to back away from its arrogant “rule the world” philosophy.  We were going bankrupt, he warned.

“Why are we borrowing $10 billion from China,” Paul asked, “Only to give it to Musharaf [in Pakistan,] who is a dictator, who overthrew an elected government, and then we go to war to promote democracy in Iraq?”  Good question.

But nothing drew more support than Ron Paul’s campaign against the inside power brokers of the American establishment.  Paul was making the point that no group of men and women, no matter how important or well connected, had the right to loot the US Treasury or devalue the money supply by printing more money, all without accountability.  His calls to audit the Federal Reserve were portrayed as “goofy” until citizens began asking the obvious question, “Well, why not.  It’s our government, our money.  Who is the Federal Reserve?”  It was like a scene out of the Emperor’s Clothes and the public was saying that the Wall Street Princes of Power were naked.  And so they are.

If you have been reading this blog you have followed this unlikely, Cinderella story for the last few years.  You learned how Ron Paul heroically stood up in the Republican Nation Debates in 2004.  (See Ron Paul’s best YouTube moment. )  How his opponents will try to defeat him.  (See Is Ron Paul too old?)  And how he can pull an upset?  (How Ron Paul Wins.) But who would have thought the numbers would look this good this early?

During the 2008 Fox News Debate, an anchor brought up the dilemma, “Congressman Paul, another question about electability.  Do you have any sir?”  There followed raucous laughter and ridicule at the congressman’s expense.  But Ron Paul patiently let the laughter pass over him and then made his passionate point, that he would win when the American people began to see the truth.  Well, it has begun to happen.  Ron Paul is not only in double digits, he is 1% away from the incumbent president.

GOP experts were quick to dismiss his recent win at CPAC as meaningless.  Only the result of young voters.  But 41% of the American electorate represents a lot more than that.

Welcome to the revolution.


Published by Doug Wead

Doug Wead is a New York Times bestselling author whose latest book, Game of Thorns, is about the Trump-Clinton 2016 election. He served as an adviser to two American presidents and was a special assistant to the president in the George H.W. Bush White House.

24 thoughts on “He can actually win!

  1. Mickey Mouse would beat Barry in a poll right now. However, I agree Ron’s “Mousie-ness” works against him.

  2. @tex2 this is what you have to look at:

    “Even more stunning, according to the poll only 11% prefer some other candidate and 6% are undecided.”

    41% are saying yes to Ron Paul not no to Barack Obama.

  3. I love all your Ron Paul Articles and have been following along in the series, but it’s my first post. Just thought I’d pass along that the years you have are wrong they are in the 2007 and 2008 debates, not 2004, unless I’m missing something.

    I have yet to hear anything about it in the news… I’m not surprised. My MAN Ron Paul FTW in 2012!

  4. We don’t want 2012 to have the same ending as 2008 did – there are things we can all do to help make sure things are different this next time – Plan on victory in 2012!

    Here’s a list of things we can all do starting today to make that happen, do as many of them as you are comfortable with.

    1. Ron Paul needs allies. If we elect candidates in 2010 who share Dr. Paul’s way of seeing things, it will give people who are on the fence confidence that a liberty candidate like Ron Paul is electable in 2012.

    Find great liberty candidates at – http://libertyslate.com/
    http://www.retakecongress.com/ – and – http://www.rlc.org/endorsements/2010-endorsed-candidates/

    Find a candidate you want to help, and then work hard to get them elected in 2010!

    2. Get involved with one of the groups that grew out of the 2008 r3VOLution – Young Americans for Liberty – http://www.yaliberty.org/ – or the Campaign for Liberty -http://www.campaignforliberty.com/

    3. Sign the pledge to support Ron Paul in 2012! – http://www.draftronpaul.com/

    4. Spread the word! Tell your friends, family and your neighbors, invite them to join this group too! – make sure any Ron Paul groups you belong to are updated and are geared toward the 2010 and 2012 elections – we need to get the idea out there now! If your Ron Paul bumper sticker came off within the last year, get a new one here – http://www.ronpaul.com/ron-paul-store/ron-paul-bumper-stickers/

    5. Inspire the troops! Watch “For Liberty: How the Ron Paul Revolution Watered the Withered Tree of Liberty” with your friends and family, show it on campus or rent a theater for a night, it’s that good! – http://www.forlibertymovie.com/catalog/

    6. Stay on top of the latest news at – http://www.dailypaul.com/ – and

    7. Make sure you are registered Republican if your state has closed primaries. Ron Paul has made it clear that he will be staying in the Republican Party – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wcDfmxAyrs

    8. Help remake the Republican Party. Ron Paul‘s son Rand has stated “The Republican Party Is An Empty Vessel.” Rand has suggested we fill it with the waters of liberty.

    To do this you have to get involved with the actual party mechanisms. Start by going to your local County GOP Executive Committee meetings, Google your State Republican Party to find information about when and where your County Republican Executive Committee meets. Become a precinct committeeman/committeewoman, drag your friends along to do the same. As a precinct committeewoman/man it is your responsibility to educate/keep informed the republican voters in your precinct, doesn’t that sound like just a little bit of fun? (it is!)

    Once you are a committeeman/woman, you have a right to vote on local party business and this includes electing officers. Next time county elections come up, run yourself and your friends for chairwoman/man., secretary, treasurer, etc. First we take the Counties, then the States. That is how we fill this vessel with liberty from the grassroots up!

    If we all get involved now, we won’t have the delegate problems we had last time around.

    In filling the party with liberty, I also suggest you join Ron Paul’s Caucus – The Republican Liberty Caucus – http://www.rlc.org/ – The RLC has chartered chapters in 22 states, and networks of RLC members in all 50 – There is an ongoing effort to drag the Republican Party to a place the founding fathers would feel comfortable already ongoing in your county or state – network with them, they need your help!

    Supporting Ron Paul in 2012 and the liberty candidates running in 2010 from within the Republican Party during the primaries is the strongest position you can support them from!

    If we all do just a little bit of this list – When Ron Paul makes it official – We vastly increase his chances of success!

    In Liberty, Zakery Carter

  5. Tex,

    I believe Paul only lost the last straw poll by 1%.

    Romney has been trying to buy the Republican nomination for the 2008 election and now for 2012. If you read Gov Huckabee’s book, you know all the advantages Romney had over the other candidates. Not to mention he’s a blue-blood, good-ole’-boy insider favorite, has a ton of cash to run on, is a flip-flopping political opportunist, and has gotten biased news coverage in his favor with ties to Fox News ownership through his company (or former company whatever the case may be). With all that, it’s a miracle anyone else is even in the same ballpark.

    My wish list is:
    1. Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee
    2. ABR (anybody but Romney)

    1. @joeydacat it’s actually better than that, Ron Paul statistically tied for first with Romney, both had 24% of the vote at the SRLC, Paul just had one less vote.

      And at CPAC Ron Paul blew Romney out of the water with 31% of the vote opposed to Romney’s 23%.

  6. joey,

    That is non-responsive. I asked a different question: if Ron only lost by one vote, why would only 11% prefer someone else? Subtracting the 6% undecided, that means he should have received 100 – 11 – 6 = 83%.

  7. The problem with Ron, and always has been, and always will be, the more that more people know about him, the more he goes DOWN.

  8. And the CPAC was clearly rigged, just like my 2008 local precinct meeting had a “stooge” who tried to introduce dozens of initiatives, until the rest of us found out he was a Ron LOONEY and wasting everyones’ time.

  9. Then why didn’t Ron win the recent SLRC (sp?) conference by a landslide?–

    This was your question. I addressed it.

    All straw polls are “rigged”, it’s the nature of a straw poll.

  10. Glad you agree. As I said, CPAC was also rigged. Ron’s popularity will go down once ALL of his positions become better known. Always has, always will.

    1. Actually as his positions become better known his popularity increases. C4L is bigger than ever. It’s how his positions are mis-characterized by the TV that has kept people from coming over to his side of the issue thus far. He’s much more pragmatic than the media portrays him.

  11. Then why wasn’t he president 20 years ago? There is more to being president than C4L. It’s also his wimpy, whiny persona. Obama fooled a lot of people, why can’t Ron?

  12. Wimpy and whiny is not a personality, it’s a persona. I also judge Ron by what he says and does, that’s why I won’t vote for him, unless he’s running against Barry or someone of his ilk.

  13. However, how you carry yourself does matter. Just ask all the people who now wish they DIDN’T vote for Barry in 2008. LOL

  14. I like the fact that for the next election we have different options. but there is probably a reason that we have never had a non democratic and non republican president. Ron Paul might have a shiny plate of armor, but apparently so did obama before he was elected. so i say change the constitution and re-elect george bush 🙂

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