While all eyes focus on Iowa there is some remarkable movement in New Hampshire. For the first time Ron Paul has moved into contention. Today’s Inside Advantage poll shows Mitt Romney hanging onto first place with 29.1% of the vote, Newt Gingrich at 23.9% and now Ron Paul at 20.6%. The rest trail badly, for example, Michelle Bachman dropping to 3.7% and Perry and .5%.
There is now a very real possibility that Ron Paul could win the nomination and the White House.
Everyone talks about what will happen if Paul beats Romney in Iowa, which is very likely. With the Romney brand severely damaged Gingrich would have a real shot at winning New Hampshire. But there is another scenario. Ron Paul is now within one point of Gingrich in Iowa and Paul has been moving up, Gingrich down. What if Ron Paul wins in Iowa? What if he beats both Romney and Gingrich? both men will be hurt in New Hampshire, Ron Paul will get a bump and could win there too.
Well, the pundits are saying, even if that happened, where does he go after that? What can he do in South Carolina?
Keep this in mind. As the renowned Trygve Olson points out, no recent candidate of either party has ever won the nomination without winning either the Iowa Caucus or the New Hampshire primary. This because of the power of sequential wins. And nobody has won both, in recent years, without getting the nomination. What happens is that the candidate who wins an early contest gets a bump. If he does it a second time the bump becomes insurmountable.
If Ron Paul wins the Iowa Caucus he will become a sensation. The people of South Carolina will rush to Google him and they will learn what the people of Iowa and New Hampshire are learning right now, that the way this economy is being run is corrupt and only one person saw it coming and exposed it and can be trusted to fix it.
Now you can bet that the people who are gaming the system will be fighting against this scenario for all they are worth. The attacks are coming and they will be merciless. But the public does not like being conned. And the public has lost the value of their homes and lost their retirement funds, they just may not be willing to give up their vote as well.
Paulistas need not worry about South Carolina. They need not worry about New Hampshire and Iowa. They should only have one concern. The next money bomb on December 16th, this Friday. That’s all that matters now. Ron Paul has great television ads, the best of the campaign, and those ads are working. They are very effective. They move numbers. But it will take money to get them air time. Everything for Ron Paul now depends on Friday. The nation’s elite will be watching.
And yes, Virginia, this is all happening. Ron Paul can win it all. It is something that we have discussed here for the last four years. It is now very possible.