Strange bedfellows: Why Trump and Cruz need each other now

April 2, 2016

Today the airwaves are full of false reports from experts telling us how the Republican National Convention might become open and might nominate a new name. Karl Rove claims that this might happen. Respected pundits speculate about it.  But it simply will never happen and let me explain why.

To put another name into play will not only require the betrayal of Donald Trump, it will require the betrayal of Ted Cruz. And while the Republican Party will not likely survive the former it certainly cannot survive both.

Here’s how it works.  Rule 40b requires that a candidate must have a plurality of delegates in eight states to be nominated.  This is the so called “Ron Paul Rule” put in place by Mitt Romney, John Sununu, Ben Ginsberg and others seeking to block Ron Paul from being nominated in 2012.  When Ron Paul actually closed in on a majority in eight states they contested some of his duly elected delegates and threw them off the floor of the RNC.  This so saddened the Governor of one of the states involved, seeing these GOP young people disenfranchised, that he protested the action and walked out with these young people.

At present, only two candidates have reached the eight state threshold for the 2016 RNC. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  Under the current rules they are the only candidates who can be nominated. Thus reports today that some will vote for Rubio on the first ballot or that Kasich is surging among delegates is irrelevant. If delegates vote for a candidate that is not nominated, and because of State GOP rules some will do so, they won’t be counted. Thus Sharon Johnson of Arizona voted for Pat Buchanan in 1992 but it did nothing.

Ahhh, you say. But what if the Rules Committee votes to change Rule 40b? What if they changed it to a one state requirement to nominate? Or to no states and allow nominations on the floor?

To do that the Rules Committee would have to be controlled by delegates who want that to happen.

After the Rachel Maddow show a few weeks ago the media seems to better understand that the delegates pledged to Trump are not really people who necessarily support Trump.  Many of them support Cruz. Maybe even most of them. And some support Rubio or Bush or Romney or Ryan.

But it is safe to say that a majority of the delegates on the Rules Committee support either Trump or Cruz. They do not support Karl Rove or Ben Ginsburg or John Sununu or other GOP establishment Republicans. (Monday read a post on this blog about why the establishement fears an outsider.)

To win this battle the establishment Republicans must not only betray Donald Trump they must also betray Ted Cruz. They must convince a majority of the delegates on the Rules Committee to open the convention to someone else.  Someone not Trump and not Cruz.

It ain’t gonna happen.

Ted Cruz will not order his delegates serving on the Rules Committee to vote to open the convention to another name.  He will want to keep this as a decision between he and Trump. It is his only chance to win.

The corrupt GOP establishment may eventually do the unthinkable. Force the unity of the Republican Party, with them on the outside looking in.

 

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Why the GOP Establishment still thinks they can take out Donald Trump

March 24, 2016

Yes, I know. It’s getting late. He is way ahead.

Even if he should not get all of the delegates he needs – and he will – there are many options, many deals he can make to win the others.

Not to worry. Just start thinking about the general right?

Wrong.

There is a reason why the GOP establishment is still holding out and why they think they can still steal the nomination from Donald Trump. They will hit the four areas where he is weakest.

Here’s how it will work.

1.) They will continue to amass delegates that they personally control. These include Cruz-Rubio-Kasich delegates but even more importantly, old Mitt Romney delegates who were recruited by State and County Chairmen in 2012.

If you don’t understand how it works, look at this video from the Rachel Maddow Show.

Remember, the delegates are people who are elected at County, District and State GOP Conventions. They have to vote according to the rules of their State Party but those rules change from State to State.

Take for example Florida. The delegates must vote for the winner of the Florida Primary for the first three ballots of the RNC and then they are free to vote as they wish but only for officially nominated candidates.

Other states say that their delegates must only vote for the winner of their primary or caucus on the first ballot.

Donald Trump just won the Arizona Primary but he currently has no effective ground game in Arizona to win all of the delegate slots at the State Convention on April 30. The makeup of that Convention will be determined by District Conventions happening this week. Most of the likely delegates I have personally talked to favor Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, the Ted Cruz campaign just pulled off a coup in Georgia over the weekend.

2.) They will fund anti-Trump Super Pacs which will go unanswered.

The anti-Trump movement has become a cottage industry with hundreds of loose political operatives raising money by trashing Trump. It is growing exponentially. It’s a way for the pundits to pay the mortgage.

Trump supporters have created their own Super Pac, Make American Great Again. It will counter the organizing at the State Conventions and eventually answer ad for ad but they must move fast. They are way behind.

Trump hasn’t helped matters by constantly reminding folks that he is funding his own campaign.

The result? People aren’t invested. Voting patterns show that a person who donates to a campaign is 50 times more likely to vote for the same person.

If the Trump Super Pac doesn’t get big funding fast, the anti-Trump Pacs will start running millions of dollars of unanswered ads which will spill over into the general election. But the more immediate threat to Trump is that they could help the establishment take away the nomination by setting up the following scenario.

3.) The establishment will begin a series of media leaks to hurt Trump.

Wait a minute. What can hurt him? He is “the Teflon Don.” No scandal, money, sex or mafia can touch him.

Yes, I know.

But as Ronald Regan learned in 1976 and Pat Buchanan learned in 1992, the media can be almost nice to you during the nomination process when you are a Republican outsider. They turn vicious when you appear to be winning.

Public opinion can be powerful. Remember, the duly elected president of Ukraine was overthrown by demonstrators in the street? The whole Trump phenomenon began when an illegal immigrant who had been deported back to Mexico five times shot and killed a 34 year old woman in San Francisco.

The media drumbeat against Trump will be incessant, fed by special interests and designed to get a Trump reaction.

As the negative stories hit some of his supporters will start saying to themselves, “Well, even I have a problem with this one.”

And then they will say, “If there is one more thing like that I might just not vote at all.”

But still the attacks will keep coming.

It is in this atmosphere, with alleged scandal after scandal, GOP leaders will start calling for “An open convention.” They will say, “Let these delegates vote their conscience. Turn them loose. Let the people decide.”

The national media will agree.

Of course an “open” convention would be an insider, establishment convention run by delegates who do the bidding of the bosses.

#4) In this atmosphere the Convention will vote to change the rules and allow its own delegates to be unbound.

At present, Rule Number 40(b) limits nominees to candidates who have a majority in eight state contests. And as the distinguished Morton Blackwell quotes, “Only candidates who meet the eight-state threshold required to receive votes that count on the first ballot can receive votes that count on subsequent ballots.”

But the Rules can be changed at the Convention. The threshold can be changed to five states, as it was before 2012 Romney operatives decided to block Ron Paul from nomination. It can even be changed to none.

Such an “open” convention could turn to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney or others who are more acceptable. The Trump train will come to an end.

Is it likely? No.

At the moment, such a scenario could easily be stopped by defeating the first two steps but Mr. Trump’s campaign has done too little too late. They are leaving money out on the table in a room full of thieves. It is not likely to stay there for long.

If you keep hearing party leaders speaking generously about an “open convention” you know that they are still trying to stop Trump. Only when they start talking about “rallying around the front runner” will you know that he has the nomination secured.

(Coming soon: Simple steps Trump can take to solidify his nomination. Why does the GOP establishment rage? What do they want?)


Insider Secrets Behind Arkansas Win.

June 11, 2012
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Here is a message for those of you still laboring in the GOP machine, working to get delegates.  This comes from another soldier in the Ron Paul Arkansas Constitutional team.
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Keep in mind that we did not win the whole state,  so it doesn’t count as one of the five, this because under Arkansas GOP rules the establishment county chairman will pick the 21 at large delegates themselves, and we don’t have the majority of those county chairman.  But we have picked up some chairmen and we DID win a majority of the district delegates that were available in free election.
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Hello Doug,
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I was at the 2nd District Convention in Arkansas this past Saturday having served as the 2nd Congressional District Leader for the Ron Paul 2012 campaign in Arkansas.  It was your interview with Rachel Maddow on MSNBC that clued us in on the need to swarm into the County committees and stealthily establish a Ron Paul majority.  Thank you for your excellent guidance on that.  We took it and ran with it.  What a lesson in Political Science too.  Monica Serrano also did a great job as State Coordinator for the campaign.
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One of the more significant things about our clean sweep of the delegates and alternates in Arkansas’ 2nd District was the names of the competing candidates we were able to beat.  Senator John Boozman, Congressman Tim Griffin and many other elected officials and party leaders were on the ballot and also on Romney’s list of recommend delegates that appeared on every table.  It was looking as if we were about to get trounced by the party establishment when a miracle began to unfold.
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As the ballots were being read, I thought I was dreaming.  First elected was Todd Ellis of the Ron Paul Army, who was wearing his ball cap backwards.  Second elected was Zak Smart of the Ron Paul Army, who wears his blond hair with the top died bright red.  Third elected was Lonnie Lasseter of the Ron Paul Army, who gave the appearance of a good old country boy.   These new delegates sure didn’t look like typical Republicans!  😉
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The party leaders had to take a break after that to go look at the party rules.  They came back completely baffled.
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Then we began to elect the alternates.  First alternate was Crickett Baker of the Ron Paul Army, a tiny, elderly lady who charmed the crowd by saying she wanted to go to at least one Republican National Convention before she died.  We granted her wish.  Then we elected another elderly lady, Mozella Fulchte, because our slate ran out and we liked her.  We had been passing notes under the tables.  For the third alternate, we elected Benjamen Peterson of the Ron Paul Army.  I can’t really tell you what he looks like because he didn’t show up.  Apparently he came late and was locked out.  But we elected him anyway.
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And so, that is how our rag tag team of Ron Paul Revolutionaries took over the Republican Party in Central Arkansas.
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The party establishment was completely blindsided and left in a state of shock.  They are still stunned.
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Moral of the story;  You can’t stop an idea whose time has come!
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Freedom Forever,
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Dugan King
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Note to delegate hunters:  Here is that Rachel Maddow interview.  Like the Ronulans of Arkansas, listen and learn and act accordingly.
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