Today the airwaves are full of false reports from experts telling us how the Republican National Convention might become open and might nominate a new name. Karl Rove claims that this might happen. Respected pundits speculate about it. But it simply will never happen and let me explain why.
To put another name into play will not only require the betrayal of Donald Trump, it will require the betrayal of Ted Cruz. And while the Republican Party will not likely survive the former it certainly cannot survive both.
Here’s how it works. Rule 40b requires that a candidate must have a plurality of delegates in eight states to be nominated. This is the so called “Ron Paul Rule” put in place by Mitt Romney, John Sununu, Ben Ginsberg and others seeking to block Ron Paul from being nominated in 2012. When Ron Paul actually closed in on a majority in eight states they contested some of his duly elected delegates and threw them off the floor of the RNC. This so saddened the Governor of one of the states involved, seeing these GOP young people disenfranchised, that he protested the action and walked out with these young people.
At present, only two candidates have reached the eight state threshold for the 2016 RNC. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Under the current rules they are the only candidates who can be nominated. Thus reports today that some will vote for Rubio on the first ballot or that Kasich is surging among delegates is irrelevant. If delegates vote for a candidate that is not nominated, and because of State GOP rules some will do so, they won’t be counted. Thus Sharon Johnson of Arizona voted for Pat Buchanan in 1992 but it did nothing.
Ahhh, you say. But what if the Rules Committee votes to change Rule 40b? What if they changed it to a one state requirement to nominate? Or to no states and allow nominations on the floor?
To do that the Rules Committee would have to be controlled by delegates who want that to happen.
After the Rachel Maddow show a few weeks ago the media seems to better understand that the delegates pledged to Trump are not really people who necessarily support Trump. Many of them support Cruz. Maybe even most of them. And some support Rubio or Bush or Romney or Ryan.
But it is safe to say that a majority of the delegates on the Rules Committee support either Trump or Cruz. They do not support Karl Rove or Ben Ginsburg or John Sununu or other GOP establishment Republicans. (Monday read a post on this blog about why the establishement fears an outsider.)
To win this battle the establishment Republicans must not only betray Donald Trump they must also betray Ted Cruz. They must convince a majority of the delegates on the Rules Committee to open the convention to someone else. Someone not Trump and not Cruz.
It ain’t gonna happen.
Ted Cruz will not order his delegates serving on the Rules Committee to vote to open the convention to another name. He will want to keep this as a decision between he and Trump. It is his only chance to win.
The corrupt GOP establishment may eventually do the unthinkable. Force the unity of the Republican Party, with them on the outside looking in.