Tim Pawlenty has clear path to White House

Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota may not be very famous right now but look out.  He’s going to come on strong. With Mike Huckabee’s decision not to run and Sarah Palin’s likely decision to follow, Pawlenty is the only hi-profile evangelical Christian in the GOP presidential sweepstakes.

Now understand this, according to one poll, 60% of the caucus goers in Iowa are born again Christians.  48% of the nation.  It is how George H. W. Bush, born in Massachusetts, raised in Connecticut, a patrician establishment figure, won the presidency in a landslide in 1988.  He lost the Jewish vote, the Hispanic vote, the African American vote, hey, he was the first modern president to be elected and still arguably lose the Catholic vote.  But he secretly focused on evangelicals and carried 81% of the born again vote, trouncing Governor Michael Dukakis.  I know the history well, I was the point man, reporting to his son, George W. Bush.

Consider the following.  In Iowa, the 40% non evangelical vote will be split by Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson and a gaggle of non politicians such as Herman Cain.   Unless Michelle Bachman gets in the race, Pawlenty will have a claim on the whole 60%, although the others will surely make an effort.  And even with Congresswoman Bachman in the race, Sarah Palin has made it clear she will only endorse a governor.  It was always thought she meant Huckabee.  Now, Pawlenty, the only born again Christian governor in the race, may be her choice.

Donald Trump’s initial overtures to evangelicals were laughable, almost endearing in their naiveté.  “I am a Christian,” the Donald intoned seriously to the Christian Broadcasting Network, “And I never, never miss church on Easter and Christmas.  Never.”

Not only is it appearing that Pawlenty will have the evangelical vote as a base all to himself, but it appears that the other relevant constituencies will be split.  Consider Romney’s delima.  If Jon Huntsman runs it will split the tiny Mormon vote.  Not a big vote to be sure but powerful for fundraising and organizing and a crucial activist base for Romney in the soon to follow – must win – Nevada contest.  If Romney gets beat In Iowa and comes in anywhere but first in Nevada, he may not even survive to New Hampshire where his money is expected to make a big difference.  (A well heeled candidate can buy television time on Boston stations which blanket New Hampshire.)

Then there is my favorite, Ron Paul.  He is the Tea party – libertarian – constitutional GOP candidate.  But Ron Paul has done such a good job of changing the discourse in the nation that he has inspired other libertarians into the race.  Former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson is in and Congresswoman Michelle Bachman may soon announce.  It will split the emerging GOP libertarian vote into three pieces.  Again, while Pawlenty has the massive born-againers vote all to himself.

It gets worse, or better if you are a Pawlenty fan.  Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum split the Catholic – right to life vote in Iowa.

And finally, keep in mind, Governor Tim Pawlenty is from Minnesota, a state that borders Iowa, making him the regional candidate as well.  Many Iowas know all about Pawlenty, they saw him on cable television that carries stations from Minneapolis – St. Paul.

Make no mistake, there will be a fight for the evangelical vote.  Gingrich, a recent convert to the Catholic faith, will fight Pawlenty step by step and already has a head start.  David Lane and other top evangelical activists lean to Gingrich and he may also have the Fox News Channel mantle, maybe even Huckabee’s favor.

Pawlenty may not do what needs to be done.  Evangelical candidates sometimes think that they will automatically win that vote. born again Democrat and incumbent president  Jimmy Carter did in 1980, only waking up to the problem too late.  So Pawlenty must actually meet evangelical leaders of influence nationwide, not just in Iowa, for this group, like African American’s follow their leaders.  But theoretically, they are now Pawlenty’s votes to lose if he will take the time to go after them.

His strategy will be clear.  Win Iowa, which will stir up a Pawlenty media mania, “who is this new guy,” allowing him to stay in the running in Nevada and New Hampshire and then win again in South Carolina and the rest of the South, where evangelicals roost.  (The Southern Baptist Convention is the largest Protestant denomination in America and 90% of its membership live in 13 southern states) .

With Hucakabee out of the race and providing that Sarah Palin follows the Huck into retirement and the television – lecture circuit, it is all doable for Pawlenty.  You have been warned, this obscure, quiet governor from the Midwest may just come roaring to the front of the pack.  The pieces are in place for a dark horse, Tim Pawlenty, upset in Iowa and you just may be able to ride that dark horse all the way to the White House.

This is part of a continuing series on the 2012 candidates:

See:  Obama – RomneyGingrichTrumpHuckabeeHuntsman

(Wednesday I will be announcing my own favorite for president.)


Published by Doug Wead

Doug Wead is a New York Times bestselling author whose latest book, Game of Thorns, is about the Trump-Clinton 2016 election. He served as an adviser to two American presidents and was a special assistant to the president in the George H.W. Bush White House.

34 thoughts on “Tim Pawlenty has clear path to White House

  1. Good Morning Doug!

    I have enjoyed reading your opinions on potential presidential candidates. The field is clearly open for strong leadership. One candidate you have not mentioned thus far is the winner of the South Carolina Republican Debate, Herman Cain. What is your opinion?


  2. Doug,

    You’re “warning” us all the potential candidates may win. Is this your way of being able to say later, “I told you so” even though you were wrong on the rest of them, and just conveniently ignore that “minor” fact?

    1. Ha. No I am doing a series for Newsmax on each of the candidates and how they might succeed. My preference is no big secret and will be known soon.

  3. I can’t imagine Pawlenty getting the evangelical vote. Ron Paul is far more a man of faith (from what I can tell) than he.

      1. Ron Paul is your political savior. You would realize this if you could wake up from your indoctrinated stupor.

      2. Got any facts for your statement. If anyone has been proven right over the years it’s Ron Paul!

      3. Do you always parrot T.V. talking points? Care to make a list of the things Ron is a nut job on and then your logic behind those assertions.

        I can guarantee this…you’ll find that you have been lied to and don’t understand Ron one iota.

        My bet is that Doug’s favorite is Ron and Doug is no dummy. In fact, I saw Doug at Ron Paul’s Rally for the Republic in St. Paul/Minneapolis during the 2008 Republican convention.

        Good to see you’re still active and involved Doug.

      4. “Nut job”
        I know Tex…
        Wanting to follow the rules that the founders set in place, in one of the most intelligent documents ever written, is pretty nutty.
        You tell ’em Tex. You make all us Texans proud mmkay?
        Being married to the same woman for over 50 years, and having a 20+ year track record of fidelity to the Constitution, is nutty.
        Standing on principles over party?
        Yep….Nutty too.

        I mean who needs principles?
        They’re so overrated.

      5. If by “nut-job” you mean thoughtful, honest, sincere and serious, then sign me up for the insane asylum. He’s running to change the discourse and political philosophy of this country, and God bless him for that.

        The rest of the GOP field is a one-way ticket to loser-ville. They all come with the typical political baggage, namely, hypocrisy in spades.

      6. I have one more question for you. What is a modern day fact? Is it different from an “olden” day fact? Can we agree that a fact is always a fact? For example, 1 + 1 = 2. That is always a fact, but maybe you would classify it as an “olden” day fact. Maybe 1 + 1 = 3 if it is a modern day fact.

  4. Tex: You’re gonna need to do better than calling the esteemed Ron Paul a “nut job”. Are Steve Forbes, Judge Napolitano, Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater Jr., and Dylan Ratigan, (not to mention the collective majority of members of the military that supported Ron Paul over all other Republican candidates combined in ’08) all “nut jobs” too as a result of their support for RP?

    If being a constitutionalist is nutty then so am I as well as the founding fathers.

    Thanks for your very insightful assessment Mr. Weed.

  5. One of the biggest modern day facts Ron “nut job” Paul ignores is how interconnected the world has become.

    We can’t completely pull out of countries like Ron wants to do and let them do what they want; there are countries and people in those countries who want to, and can, destroy us using nuclear weapons and terrorist attacks. Does anyone remember 9/11 on this forum?

    1. Hey Tex,
      If you still believe the 9/11 fairy tale, I now understand where you are coming from. However, if you want to know the truth about the day that put the final nail in America’s coffin, I suggest you google and Youtube “Building 7”. Then watch all of the videos on the front pages of google and Youtube. And if you are still asleep after doing this, don’t worry, Santa Clause is going to bring you some nice presents this year.

      6 out of 10 of the 9/11 commissioners have publicly stated that the government intentionally misled the American people. Do you like being lied to?

      We spend more money on military than ALL OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD COMBINED! Do you feel safer? If we can spend all of this money and a man in a cave can pull off the greatest terrorist strike in human history, how is more money and more foreign intervention going to make things better? It won’t. The only thing that will save us is when Americans pull their head out of their ass.

      1. Are you saying our government knew 9/11 was going to happen? Is that what your hero Ron Paul says? See this link to debunk your conspiracy theory: http://www.debunking911.com/pull.htm
        Also, do you really think our government can keep this scope of a conspiracy a secret? If so, Santa Clause is going to bring you some nice presents this year. LOL

        The commissioners said we were misled HOW? I don’t like being lied to by amateurs, either. LOL

        Yes, I feel safer. The world is a nasty place, and strength keeps the idiots at bay. We weren’t paying enough attention to the terrorists before 9/11. How many similar attacks have there been in the U.S. in the past 9 1/2 years? None. The only thing that will save you is when you pull your head out of your ass.

      2. Since I can’t reply to your response below I will do it here Tex.

        See Tex there really is an easter bunny, and santa clause too. Neocons have destroyed America and you are marching in lockstep with them. I’ve seen this movie before, it was called Nazi Germany and it all started with a false flag attack on his Reichstag.

        And speaking of governments keeping conspiracies secret…

        How did the US Governement keep the Gulf Of Tonkin incident secret for 40 years. 60,000 American boys and Millions of innocent Vietnamese died over that lie.

        How about the U.S.S. Liberty? How was the government able to sweep that one under the rug?

        Do you still believe the Warren Commission after all of these years?

        Governments lie all of the time, and the reason why they do is because they know the average person is so dummed down and gullible that they will never question the official story, like you.

        And by the way, how do you explain a 50 story building falling at free fall speed, when demolition experts around the world have said it was demolished.

        Never in the history of highrise concrete and steel structures have they ever completely collapsed into piles of dust from fire. NEVER!

        Below are real experts discussing this. Read it and weep. Your ignorance and gullibility has killed what was the greatest nation on the planet. Now go back to your tv. Your government loves you!


        P.S. I am not speaking for Ron Paul. I am speaking for myself. Ron Paul knows if we end the Federal Reserve we will eliminate all of these illegal wars. That’s good enough reason for me to support him! Good luck trying to be the worlds cop! I hope your social security check bounces on the day you need it the most. Maybe then you will wake up.

      3. Keep it up, you make Ron Paul look like more of a nut with every letter you type into your keyboard! LOL

      4. Winning the hearts and minds of thinking Americans!

        Here, this might explain your condition…

      5. Newsflash! The USSR LOST. LOL

        Look, I agree with Ron on some topics, but not enough of them to vote for him. Plus, he has too wimpy of a persona.

    2. NEWSFLASH: We have adopted Russia’s techniques. (Didn’t they invade Afghanistan?)

      Yeah, what we need is a tough talker. Good luck with that! We tried that with Bush Jr. and now we are broke and more hated around the world than ever.

      Whatever happend with those Weapons of Mass Destruction? Or was that a conspiracy as well? And didn’t we go into Afghanistan to get rid of Al Qaeda? Now that they are gone, why are we still there? All empires end, usually very badly!

      When your social security check is worth less than the postage required to mail it to you, maybe you’ll wake up.

      Stupid sheep!

      1. No, we did NOT adopt Russia’s techniques. They invaded to conquer, we invaded to tamp down terrorists, first to get rid of the Taliban, and also Al Qaeda. Neither is “gone,” just weaker. The job isn’t finished, as we have to weaken them enough and strengthen the legitimate Afghanistan government enough to not repeat what happened there after we helped them kick out the USSR. Just like everywhere else the USA has “invaded,” we will leave them to govern themselves after the mess is cleaned up (just like in Europe/Japan after WWII). You really ARE clueless, aren’t you? LOL

        You didn’t like Bush, so now you want Paul? LOL

        The existence of Iraq WMD were not just our thinking, many other countries thought the same thing, and Saddam was a known “bad-boy.”

        Keep typing your nonsense, Ron Paul is looking nuttier than crunchie peanut butter! LOL

    3. Denial is not just a river in Egypt! When have we ever left a country we invaded? The only one I can think of is Vietnam, and that was because we lost.

      Admit, you like being the world’s policeman. You are a control freak. You think you can tell people in other countries to live like we do, at the barrel of a gun. You love the fact that if they do what we say to do we give them foreign aid, (money stolen from Americans) and if they don’t do what we tell them to do we bomb them. And we don’t just bomb them, we poison them for centuries with depleted uranium munitions.

      Wake up sheeple. Turn off your tv! Right now, walk over to it and unplug and toss it in the trash.

  6. By the way, do you have any statistics, other than Ron Paul sites, that indicate the military was behind Ron Paul in 2008?

    1. I live and work outside of two bases. Ron is well liked with those I speak to in the military because he takes his oath seriously. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5Aue2yZAOs&feature=youtube_gdata_player

      Thats a link about his support. Just curious though, why isn’t the rest of the world in each others countries? Using your logic, we should invade Mexico next. They have a pretty fancy drug war going on because of prohibition. I mean heck, most our military could just walk there to save a few bucks.

      1. So let’s put this in perspective: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/02/military-donors.html says, “The Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign cash, looks at the 2007 money-raising and finds the following:

        In 2007, the 2008 presidential candidates raised $582.5 million and spent $481.2 million.

        In the 4th quarter of 2007, individuals in the Army, Navy and Air Force made those branches of the armed services the No. 13, No. 18 and No. 21, contributing industries, respectively. War opponent Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, received the most from donors in the military, collecting at least $212,000 from them. Another war opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, was second with about $94,000.” $200k compared to a half billion dollars is peanuts.

        The rest of the world isn’t a super power. The rest of the world doesn’t care if people kill each other. The rest of the world isn’t going to save the U.S. from an attack.

        Mexico is unique. Mexicans are votes to the Dems and cheap labor for the Repubs. The rest of the world is in other countries. Ever hear of the French Revolution? First World War. The Second World War? the USSR invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s? I could go on, but I think you get the point.

  7. Ron Paul hasn’t been proven right – his ideas have to be IMPLEMENTED first. Perhaps using his ideas would be WORSE, have you considered that possibility?

  8. Yeah, I remember 9/11. I lost a family friend that day.
    I remember how the investigation was stalled for months and months.
    I remember how more money was spent on Monica Lewinski than the 9/11 “investigation”.
    I remember how they tried to put Henry Kissinger (international war criminal) in charge of it.
    I remember how afterwards that 6 of the 10 commissioners went on record and called their OWN investigation things like “A national scandal” A “conflict of interest” among ,many other things.
    I remember how John Farmer (lead 9/11 commish atty.) was quoted saying “THE WHITE HOUSE MADE A CONSCIOUS DECISION TO NOT TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT THE EVENTS OF 9/11”
    I remember how the Bin Laden family members were the only ones allowed to fly out of the country the next day.
    I remember how NO ONE was held accountable or responsible for the FAILURES of intelligence that day, but instead were REWARDED.

    I remember when the FBI admitted that they “didn’t have enough hard evidence to charge UBL”, when they were confronted about why his alleged crime of 9/11 wasn’t listed on their top 10 most wanted website.

    I remember how the Bush and Bin Laden family were part of the Carlyle Group, and that Salem bin Laden was an investor in GWB’s Arbusto Oil Co.

    I remember how the Mujahadeen were funded, trained, and equipped by the CIA(aka US taxpayer), and the Pakistani ISI to fight a proxy war against the Russians in Afghanistan in the 80’s.

    I remember Tex…

    Stop being a scared little lemming.

    The US has the technology, to be the strongest military in the world without being spread out all over the world, and in everyone else’s business.

    You don’t see China or Russia operating in over 700 bases, in over 130 different countries.

    WE’RE BROKE TEX!!! The party is OVER!! Get it through your thick skull.

    We either fall back (not retreat) into a perimeter position for our troops to protect OUR borders and territorial waters, or run out of money to pay them, and be humiliated.

    You can’t get OUT of debt, by going into MORE DEBT!!
    You CAN’T keep printing money and expect it to hold any value.
    You getting the big picture Tex?

    Stop being ruled by fear, and try to understand the principles of LIBERTY, private property, respect for the rule of law, and accountability for our elected officials to FOLLOW THE CONSTITUTION!!

  9. Our budget problems are not primarily caused by our military, they are caused by our welfare state. As for all of your rumor mongering, you don’t put Ron in a very good light….

  10. By the way, there is no way you can set up a “perimeter” when the people planning these attacks inside and outside the USA can go right around any “perimeter” you are thinking about. Of all people, YOU should recognize this. Jeesh!

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