Sarah Palin: Frontrunner

Okay sports fans, here we go.  As of now, who is the front runner for the GOP nomination in 2012?  And the answer is pretty simple.  Sarah Palin.  She is not only the most likely to win the nomination, she is also probably the only one who could beat Barack Obama.

Actually, no one can beat Barack Obama.  He will have to beat himself or a perfect economic storm will have to take him out.  I’ll get to that but first, let’s talk about Palin.

Here’s what she has going for her….

1.) She is the front runner, which translates into money.  And because the GOP primaries have been front loaded, with big states appearing early, the candidate with the most money will win the nomination.  And while people are less likely to give this early it still gives her months and months to collect.

2.) She has name recognition, which also translates into money.  It works like this.  Your friend is having a fundraiser, a thousand dollar a pop.  You get your picture taken with the candidate.  Would you cross the street for a picture with Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudolph Giuliani or Sarah Palin?  Most would pick Palin and that is why she will raise so much money.

And after most candidates get their money they have to spend it on name recognition which Palin already has.  I’ll put it this way, your local news station in Iowa says, “We’ll be right back with the story of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s visit to town.”  Will you stay tuned?  A Sarah Palin visit to your town will get more press.  Name recognition begets name recognition.

3.) She is a woman and a “born again” Christian. 50.7% of the country are women and many of them saw a double standard in the media treatment of Sarah Palin.  And 42% of the country claim to be born again Christians, many of whom did not take kindly to the attacks on her religion.

4.) The first contest is in Iowa, a state loaded with Evangelical Christians.  This is where George W. Bush astonished the audience by saying that his favorite “political or philosophical figure” was “Jesus Christ because he changed my heart.”  His debate opponents who chose names like Winston Churchill cried foul, Jesus wasn’t a political figure, what was Bush doing? But it was too late.  (What George W. Bush was careful not to make public until all his lifetime of elections were over was revealed in a recent interview when he announced that he doesn’t believe the Bible is really true.  Hmmmm.)

5.) The media and the public will be very reluctant to let Obama go.  It will take scandal and economic collapse but we have already seen signs that both are possible.  If that happens, they will not feel good about passing the White House onto a white male.  The transition to a woman, in this case Sarah Palin, will be more acceptable.

Yes, yes, I know.  Mitt Romney had money last time.  And Mike Huckabee was a born again Christian who won Iowa.  And Rudolph Giuliani was the front runner for a year.  And all three lost the nomination.  But that is oranges and apples and I will tell you how they are different and how Sarah Palin could dispatch them all tomorrow. And what about the Ron Paul insurgency? Tomorrow.

Published by Doug Wead

Doug Wead is a New York Times bestselling author whose latest book, Game of Thorns, is about the Trump-Clinton 2016 election. He served as an adviser to two American presidents and was a special assistant to the president in the George H.W. Bush White House.

8 thoughts on “Sarah Palin: Frontrunner

  1. Will be interesting to see if Palin can really dethrone the great Hussein. Awesome article as usual, and as usual you leave me intellectually drooling for me. Can’t wait for tomorrow 🙂

  2. Wouldn’t it be fair to say that there are two main factors in fund-raising: recognition and fervor? Ron Paul has already demonstrated that a few dedicated followers can match funds with a multitude of less fervent followers. Couple that with the fact that the numbers are growing, and will continue to grow as people discover his consistent record in the midst of a sea of inconsistency and betrayal of values, and you have to think Paul has some serious fund-raising potential.

  3. You always come up with such pithy scenarios…and it always astounds me at how often you have been proven correct. I will be watching intently to see if Gov. Palin is also one of your correct choices.

  4. This sure makes sense to me. I think America needs a strong female figure to help us make sense of our bad choices. Along your same sense of logic, if you messed up really bad who would you want to go to? Your strong authoritative father, or your gently leading mother. After these next four years play out, my guess is we will all need a compassionate shoulder to cry on.

  5. The idea that Sarah Palin is the Republican front-runner is absolutely nuts. It makes me completely lose respect for Doug Wead. She would be annihilated by Obama in any debate. Even that jerk Joe Biden toyed with her. Mike Huckabee is the guy.

  6. I agree with a previous post that Palin would be exposed for the inexperienced novice that she is, lacking in economic, world, and general government knowledge. The primary problem with Palin is that she doesn’t subscribe to an foundational ideology she can communicate clearly, as Reagan did for the conservative movement. I believe the next election for President won’t be difficult for Republicans if they can only humble themselves and elevate a humble Ron Paul Republican with the rhetoric of Ronald Reagan.

  7. What a pity that Mary Achor is too blinded by her affection for Doug Wead that she can’t see where he’s been dead wrong on several issues over the past year.

    I only need point to the prediction about Caroline Kennedy. Her political career is finished. I live in New York and I know people connected to the political scene here who can verify this.

    Davide7 is the one who is nuts with his laughable crusade on behalf of that affable but hapless hillbilly Mike Huckabee. Sorry, pal, but America would never elect someone with such a silly sounding name to begin with.

    Sarah Palin had better be hitting the books over the next four years and becoming as knowledgeable as any PhD when it comes to political science. She’s also got to turn into an attack dog as well. Politics is a brutal sport and not for the squeamish.

  8. Doug- How about this ticket? Sarah Palin and Condoleezza Rice? I will create the bumper stickers and bet we could market a million!! ha! Second, ask me how to handle the immigration problem in US and I will be gracious to give you some ‘Texas common sense’, something Washington D.C. can’t seem to locate.

    Your Friend in Houston–BG

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