Okay sports fans, here we go. As of now, who is the front runner for the GOP nomination in 2012? And the answer is pretty simple. Sarah Palin. She is not only the most likely to win the nomination, she is also probably the only one who could beat Barack Obama.
Actually, no one can beat Barack Obama. He will have to beat himself or a perfect economic storm will have to take him out. I’ll get to that but first, let’s talk about Palin.
Here’s what she has going for her….
1.) She is the front runner, which translates into money. And because the GOP primaries have been front loaded, with big states appearing early, the candidate with the most money will win the nomination. And while people are less likely to give this early it still gives her months and months to collect.
2.) She has name recognition, which also translates into money. It works like this. Your friend is having a fundraiser, a thousand dollar a pop. You get your picture taken with the candidate. Would you cross the street for a picture with Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudolph Giuliani or Sarah Palin? Most would pick Palin and that is why she will raise so much money.
And after most candidates get their money they have to spend it on name recognition which Palin already has. I’ll put it this way, your local news station in Iowa says, “We’ll be right back with the story of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s visit to town.” Will you stay tuned? A Sarah Palin visit to your town will get more press. Name recognition begets name recognition.
3.) She is a woman and a “born again” Christian. 50.7% of the country are women and many of them saw a double standard in the media treatment of Sarah Palin. And 42% of the country claim to be born again Christians, many of whom did not take kindly to the attacks on her religion.
4.) The first contest is in Iowa, a state loaded with Evangelical Christians. This is where George W. Bush astonished the audience by saying that his favorite “political or philosophical figure” was “Jesus Christ because he changed my heart.” His debate opponents who chose names like Winston Churchill cried foul, Jesus wasn’t a political figure, what was Bush doing? But it was too late. (What George W. Bush was careful not to make public until all his lifetime of elections were over was revealed in a recent interview when he announced that he doesn’t believe the Bible is really true. Hmmmm.)
5.) The media and the public will be very reluctant to let Obama go. It will take scandal and economic collapse but we have already seen signs that both are possible. If that happens, they will not feel good about passing the White House onto a white male. The transition to a woman, in this case Sarah Palin, will be more acceptable.
Yes, yes, I know. Mitt Romney had money last time. And Mike Huckabee was a born again Christian who won Iowa. And Rudolph Giuliani was the front runner for a year. And all three lost the nomination. But that is oranges and apples and I will tell you how they are different and how Sarah Palin could dispatch them all tomorrow. And what about the Ron Paul insurgency? Tomorrow.